An Algorithm for Creating Master Schedules That Minimises Schedule Reorganisation Resulting From Adverse Risk Events

Lookahead planning is a process that identifies constraints that need to be removed in order for the activity to proceed. If an activity has constraints that cannot be removed in time for it to start then the activity needs to be rescheduled and work may need to be found for the resources that would otherwise be idle. This may impact many subsequent activities that depend on the delayed activity reducing the reliability of the schedule and potentially extending the project. This paper presents an algorithm based on a risk model for creating a master schedule for a project arranged to minimise the reorganisation required when delays occur to activities that have some probability of being delayed. The model assumes that the project will be utilising a lookahead process so that it will be recognised ahead of time that a particular activity will be delayed. It also assumes that the probabilities that different activities will be delayed, and an estimate of the amount of warning of each delay that will be given by the lookahead process, can be obtained from risk analysis. A case study example is presented that highlights the algorithm’s effectiveness.